Fiber-based packaging is expected to become the dominant material for food packaging by 2045, supported by advances in barrier coating technologies, stricter environmental regulations and growing pressure to reduce plastic waste, according to a new study commissioned by UPM Specialty Materials and conducted by global consultancy Smithers.
The study, based on responses from more than 230 packaging professionals worldwide, forecasts that fiber-based packaging will increase its share of the global food packaging market from 37% today to 42% by 2045. At the same time, 71% of respondents believe fiber-based materials will be regarded as the most sustainable packaging option within the next two decades.
According to the report, improvements in barrier coatings are enabling paper and fibre-based packaging to move into applications that have traditionally relied on plastic. High-performance barriers against moisture, oxygen and grease are expected to play a critical role in expanding the use of fibre packaging for food products that require longer shelf life or greater product protection.
“We’re encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre-based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand, and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies. Our role is to support customers in this transition with high-performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality,” said Janne Varvemaa, Director, Products and Technology at UPM Specialty Materials.
Regulation is expected to become an even stronger market driver over the coming decades. Seventy-one percent of respondents believe sustainability will evolve from a competitive advantage into a mandatory regulatory requirement by 2045, while 88% expect legislation to fundamentally influence packaging material selection.
The study identifies Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes and eco-modulation fees as two of the most significant policy tools shaping future packaging decisions. These mechanisms are expected to reward recyclable packaging solutions while increasing costs for materials that are difficult to recycle.
“Ongoing innovation in barrier technologies is opening up new applications for fibre-based packaging to compete with plastic alternatives,” said Ciaran Little, Vice President of the Global Consulting Information Division at Smithers. “EPR and eco-modulation are directly influencing material choices.”
While recycling rates are expected to improve, respondents do not anticipate a complete transition to circular systems. Global food packaging recycling rates are projected to increase from 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045, although landfill and incineration are expected to remain significant disposal routes, particularly in regions where recycling infrastructure is still developing.
The report concludes that future packaging development will increasingly focus on combining recyclability with the functional performance required for food protection. Continued progress in fibre-based barrier technologies is expected to accelerate the replacement of plastic packaging across a wider range of food applications.
