As sustainability regulations intensify worldwide, a new forecast by research and advisory firm Gartner signals a sharp retreat from voluntary corporate commitments to sustainable packaging. According to the firm’s latest projections, by 2028, three out of four organisations will abandon self-imposed packaging sustainability goals, instead complying only with minimum legal requirements.
Gartner attributes this shift to a confluence of rising costs, regulatory complexity and internal capacity gaps. “By the end of this year, Gartner predicts that 90% of public sustainable packaging commitments will remain unmet, as organisations continue to rely on plastics and single-use packaging,” said John Blake, Senior Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice.
Currently, a large share of sustainable packaging adoption stems from companies exceeding regulatory baselines. Adoption rose sharply from 36% in 2021 to 50% in 2023. Yet, despite this momentum, many companies are already struggling to meet their own benchmarks due to infrastructure limitations and inconsistent consumer behaviour.
Companies such as Unilever and Walmart have promoted ambitious sustainability targets in packaging, while global brands like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo continue to face scrutiny over their plastic footprints. As governments begin to mandate rather than suggest sustainable practices, a significant realignment is underway.
Regulatory pressure accelerates
Among the most pressing regulatory trends is Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation, which shifts the financial and operational burden of packaging disposal from governments to the producers themselves. “With packaging rules rapidly evolving, CSCOs must shift their focus to meeting extended producer responsibility (EPR) requirements, which will demand new investments in data management, package design and compliance resources,” Blake noted.
EPR laws now span across multiple jurisdictions. In the U.S., 12 states have introduced EPR packaging legislation in 2025, with seven passing bills this year alone. These laws typically mandate that producers join a Producer Responsibility Organisation (PRO), which collects fees to fund waste management and recycling infrastructure.
These regulatory changes are not isolated. In the European Union, legislation requires that by 2030, all plastic packaging must be recyclable, reusable, or compostable. Packaging redesign and material transparency are no longer optional—they are becoming embedded in law.
Rising costs and operational impacts
Gartner warns that companies must prepare for significant cost increases. “Chief Supply Chain Officers need to prepare internal profit and loss (P&L) owners for increased costs as a result of the switch to EPR requirements,” said Blake. He cited new expenses tied to PRO membership, fines, redesigns and alternative materials, as well as major shifts in logistics and planning.
The shift will also challenge existing design processes. Gartner notes that packaging redesign cycles currently take over two years, an unsustainable pace in a regulatory environment demanding rapid adaptation. Companies must also deliver granular data on material types, recyclability, and volumes to authorities.
Gartner outlined the following impacts of new legal frameworks:
- Overhaul of collection and redistribution logistics
- Acceleration of packaging design timelines
- Integration of legislative constraints into R&D and product development strategies
“Many organisations are currently unprepared for these new requirements,” Blake cautioned. “They lack the data management tools and resources needed for compliance. Longer term, legislation can lead to significant costs for PRO fees and fines, alternative materials and supply chain adjustments.”
Leadership actions: from awareness to integration
To navigate the transition, Gartner recommends proactive leadership engagement, starting with internal education on EPR risks and obligations. Cross-functional teams—including marketing, R&D, procurement and logistics—must be mobilised to address sourcing and collection system challenges.
“Organisations that fail to prioritise packaging legislation in their design and sourcing strategies risk losing market access and eroding margins as EPR fees rise,” Blake concluded. “Proactive compliance protects market position and also creates opportunities for differentiation in an increasingly regulated environment.”
As the regulatory landscape hardens, the era of voluntary leadership in sustainable packaging may be drawing to a close—replaced by compliance-driven innovation.
